Tuesday, June 16, 2009

The problem with relievers

I was watching the Indians-Brewers game Monday night and watched as both bullpens faltered especially the Indians bullpen as they gave up 6 runs in the 8th inning. As I was picking up the pieces from my remote after Rafael Perez gave up a grand slam to Prince Fielder to officially blow the lead, I started wondering why there are so few good relievers in the MLB. I came up with a few reasons and I think they may shed some light on why even though so many games are in won or lost in the 7th, 8th, and 9th; teams continually fail to address the problems with today's bullpen set up.

1. Starters are less durable- Through the first 75 some odd years off baseball starters were horses. Pitchers went into the 7th almost every start regardless of the score. Most went 8 or 9 unless they were really being shelled. In the past 25 years though managers have begun to control pitchers more and more which has hurt the pitchers endurance. Now most pitchers are done by the 7th inning unless they have a gem going, which means more innings for the bullpen and by the law of averages the more innings for the bullpen the more often then bullpen will blow a game.

2. Hitters are too good- Whether it is all natural or by some "scientific" means hitters are getting better and better. They spend more time training in the winter and have technology unlike any previous generation. Hitters can have a bad at bat in the 4th inning go look at the video immediately and start making changes that could pay off by the 8th. Not to mention hitters can use video to study every pitcher on a team before a series starts. Hitters are too good for mediocre pitchers to get through and unfortunately today's bullpens are filled with mediocre pitchers

3. The overvalue of closers- In today's game teams have made the mistake of overpaying and overvaluing the role of closers. Realistically though the game can be blown in any inning and the system is so illogical that the follows scenario happens often. The 3-4-5 hitters coming up in the 8th in a one or two run game, and yet even though these are the hitters who are the biggest risk to scoring runs managers will trot out the set up man who 90% of the time has worse stuff than the closer. How does that make sense? Why because teams and closers are too focused on the save statistic. Without the save statistic managers would bring out their best relief pitchers to face the best hitters, whether its the 7th, 8th or 9th inning.

4. The rush to make every effective pitcher a starter or closer- Most teams have pitching prospects with pitches effective enough to be a reliever in the big leagues, yet the best prospects are pigeonholed into being the starter of the future or the closer of the future. Look at David Price or Joba Chamberlain for example. Both of these young pitchers have electric stuff and were lights out as late inning relievers, but both have made the move to the starting rotation. I am not saying those two will fail as starters but as they say "if it ain't broke don't fix it". There are plenty of average starters that can fill the 3, 4, and 5 pitcher so why force a young guy who is an effective reliever to be the 3rd pitcher in the rotation?

These are just a few thoughts but just know if I was a major league manager I will be bringing my best pitcher in to face the heart of the order in the 8th. My young pitchers will start as late relievers and if they succeed in that role they will be a reliever until the day I get fired, which will be never because I will have the most effective bullpen in the MLB.

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